The situation today is similar to before the financial crisis, to investor Gladi
European economists are with warning signs that may signal the long-term stagnation of the economy and the return of the crisis. Last time the crisis was caused to a large extent by the accumulation of bad debts and large debts, today we are on the best path to the same, in an interview with experienced stock investor Daniel Gladi.
How do you see the current market situation as an investor?
The beginning of the year was the worst in perhaps a hundred years, the psychology of the investor changed, a negative mood took over. There are several key things, connected together: commodity prices, the outflow of me to the dollar and the bottom of the market.
It was a big cheaper commodity. This is the time, or patn?
People were happy to take petrol for 27 crowns, but it’s not full time for the world economy. There was a collapse in the prices of not only oil, but also iron ore, coal, copper, nickel and large commodities. A number of companies from the task sectors and those that are connected to each other cannot arrive at current prices. Investments soaring sharply, which has a negative effect on economic growth. ek ns jet a lot of bankruptcy of taskch and oil companies. In addition, there are many countries that are vertically existed on Komoditch – Russia, near the entrance, Brazil, Nigria, Venezuela, the walls of Australia. And this is how the terrible lead. Mostly, they are a country where no one would blame for instability.
How does a strong dollar relate to this?
It pushes the commodities down and causes the fall of most of me in the developing world. The outflow of capital from these countries exacerbates the problem. This is the case of Russia, NY, the country of Southeast Asia, Brazil. For countries that had a lot of dollars’ worth of dollars, suddenly the bundles of dollars in the home side of the parties would increase.
And what about such countries?
They are countries like Venezuela, which go bankrupt. According to countries like Russia, which drink but become poorly poor, because, for example, I fell in half in Russia.
V jakm asovm horizontu se rovnovha obnov?
Tko ct. Then there’s aunt wild card and it’s on. History clearly shows that the day the communist country failed to divert its economy and will not be the exception. Comrades have a problem, the earth is almost not growing – the slum they show, no one knows. As it is in fact, it can be seen in the statistics of electricity consumption or foreign trade. In addition, it is affected by a huge outflow of capital. Pensions are fleeing and the country is not able to – the export force is weakening, and citizens and companies are losing faith in January and buying foreign currencies, especially dollars. Monetary reserves fell from $ 4 trillion in less than a year to 3.25. The pressure on me is increasing. At the end of January, the Nsk leadership addressed George Soros (financier and billion, who became famous for speculation with me, note. red.) that he will definitely not be able to sink the German currency. To me pipad smvn.
What are you investing in in the current situation?
Assume that shares are the most profitable asset in the long run. When choosing a degree, I must understand what the company owes. There are at least half of the companies on the market that I don’t understand. Buffett even claims that I don’t understand ninety percent of companies in the market.
emu don’t understand?
Sector as biotechnology or new technology. Doki understand the business of McDonalds, but nedoku understand the business model of Twitter. Not because I don’t know how to tweet, but it’s not clear to me what I want to mess with.
People often invest in things that are talked about a lot, they go with the crowd.
The people make the biggest mistake in handcuffing to him, I don’t understand. And that includes a lot of other investments – gold, real estate, start-ups.
There is no loss in admitting it, on the contrary, it is very important to realize that the hunter makes sense. I remember for a time when those years ago a huge billboard hung on the base wheel of our village where I live to buy investment gold.
It occurred to me that this was a mark of the top of the market, but at that time it was the top of the market. At about the same time, the decline in investment investment peaked, and since then indices have been falling below. The people were seduced by advertisements, few of them could explain, they invested for this.
Does it work similarly with stocks?
Yes. When they grew long, the people could not rest, and watched as they rested. On the contrary, when the psychology of the investor is negatively, there is a great deal of flattery.
What do you go for as an investor?
We want the company to have a permanently sustainable competitive advantage, which will ensure not only that the company will be here in 10 years, but that it will also prosper. In addition, it must be managed by the management, which benefits it in favor of the shareholders.
How do companies have a long-term competitive advantage?
I don’t see it at the task companies or at the airlines – it doesn’t matter to me, fly with the km, if it’s not you Nigeria Airways. There, the character does not have a good advantage over the competition. The advantage comes from various sources at BMW, we see an advantage in quality and prestige, McDonalds has a special, hardly replicable business model. Coca-Cola has not changed the product for 150 years and you don’t have to invest in it and change it. He did not have a lot of proven products. They will be here in ten years like today.
How does breeding management think in favor of stock?
Whether the management issued a profit investing time or perhaps has a huge impact on the value of the shareholder investment. The company’s management can find a pension for meaningless acquisitions, for megalomaniac projects or is a sensible bond. If the investor has an investment horizon of 14 days, then it doesn’t matter, if it’s five years and according to, it’s very important.
Can you give an example when, according to vs management, the shares did not benefit?
For example, a large pharmaceutical company, Sanofi, decided to make a major acquisition five years ago and bought the large American company Genzyme for about 20 billion euros. Half of the pensions were thrown out the window. Management should have no shareholders – to maximize the size of the company, because the rewards, prestige, ego – m in the company, the better built in the company.
Or Apple. That huge amount of cash about 150 billion dollars, which does not earn him anything and there is nothing that can be meaningfully supported by them. They should pay much more income to shares. Two years ago, the investor started to put it under pressure, but it’s a source of resources.
For this Apple’s management by vs dl?
One reason is that they have most of their pensions abroad and would have to deliver them if they were transferred to America to pay dividends or buy shares. But there are a lot of horch treasures, such as Petrobras, a Brazilian oil company. It is one of the most large companies in the world – inefficient investments, megalomaniac projects, there is corruption. It’s u jin jin league.
Didn’t Petrobras go bankrupt for the jet?
It probably won’t take long. They have a huge debt of over $ 100 billion – at the current oil prices, this is unsustainable. In addition, the markets are closed to them, they cannot issue shares and bonds because they are in the junk category (praiv, nedouc, pozn.red.), and no one will buy them. Half of the company is owned by the Brazilian state and for Brazil it is extremely important, prestigious, strategic company, there are a lot of people working there. When the oil was high, it was all over the water, politicians stole from it. The price was at $ 70 in 2008, it costs $ 2 or $ 3. It is likely that the state will have to save it, it will be up to the existing shareholders, who will be particularly fragmented.
Which shares of the company have caught my eye recently?
For example, Union Pacific, one of the largest railway companies in the United States. Its price fell from the losk maximum by thirty percent. About five years ago, Warren Buffett bought a competitor from BNSF. In the west of America, you will have a local duopoly, and so it will be in thirty years, such companies cannot be built from scratch.
Do you see any investment in Europe?
Europe is very helpful cheap euro. But when you have a non-European financial press – Wall Street Journal, Asian press, find out that no one takes Europe too much. It is not the center of the day or the driving force behind growth, mainly due to the EU’s inability to decide on anyone. But there are a lot of good companies in Europe who run a global business, it’s a very good place to hunt companies.
What about Volkswagen? Will mt have a long-term effect on the character?
No. It is not a system problem, it is a problem of greedy management and culture of society. VW has a pretty wild past. It is a company that in 2008 publicly lied about how, according to Dr. Porsche, it did not matter for a long time whether Porsche owned VW or vice versa. Then there was the affair with a full-fledged department through prostitutes. According to the management, the compensation was based on the size of the company – the goal was to be the largest in the world, regardless of efficiency. The culture of society leads to the effort to burn emissions so that they can do business. The market is cynical and in two years, no one will remember it.
You often point out that management is the worst approach to equity in Asia in general. What is your experience with this?
We have been dedicated for ten years and it is better to avoid this market completely. It is learned from local brokers that 40 percent of companies that trade in the secondary market in Anghai do not exist at all. There were cases where a seemingly legitimate company disappeared, and it turned out to be a source of organized prostitution. And how do you want to get justice in some way? I cannot imagine that such a thing would take place in the landslides in such a massive mass.
Who or what is the most market code?
Central banks – distort the price of pensions and exchange rates. The great collapse in the commodity sector is caused to a large extent by companies investing heavily in mining capacities because they had free pensions at low-rate rates. Te is the capacity power and the commodity market so much. Paradoxically, low rates, which are supposed to push inflation up, are spreading deflation, because excess capacity pushes prices down. Zero rates cause the capital to be allocated poorly – it goes to projects that would normally be unprofitable.
When will the zero-year policy end?
I don’t know, kadopdn takes care of depositors. In the Czech Republic there is a deposit of about two trillion crowns, and when inflation is half a percent, even years market rates should be two percent, not zero. The two percent difference between a deposit of two trillion assets is 40 billion a year, which the depositor ron on.
Thanks to the policy of zero years of rates, which are set by the central bank, the profit is borrowed for me. Add to that the largest and medium-term, which makes up most of their pensions in banks. Rich people, on the other hand, usually buy financial assets that are pushed up due to zero rates. Zero rate policy discourages inequality.
What happens and once rates start to rise?
Those who drank it for a fee. Last time the crisis was caused to a large extent by the accumulation of bad debts and large debts, today we are on the best path to the same. The debts of all countries are much more than eight years ago, no one has started. In addition, zero rates do not motivate stty, so that ethyls can borrow for free. In the Czech Republic, with economic growth of more than 4 percent, the deficit is not 60 billion days. When else do politicians want to reduce debt not in times of huge boom.
What could be so terrible?
Just to devalue me by 20 percent, what happened to me. Germany, as a country that is very sensitive to this, will get a big deal and we, because we will depend on German exports, so. And it will be after growth and a deficit of 100 billion tons.